Saudi Soft Power Assessment — From Pariah to Host Nation

Saudi Soft Power Assessment — The Long Game of Reputation

Saudi Arabia is executing the most expensive and comprehensive soft power campaign in modern history. Through a combination of sports investment (estimated at over $6 billion since 2021), entertainment programming (billions more through Riyadh Season and national festivals), cultural diplomacy (museum exhibitions, biennials, film festivals), development aid, and mega-event hosting (Expo 2030, Asian Winter Games 2029 — now relocated to Kazakhstan, potential FIFA World Cup 2034), the Kingdom is systematically attempting to transform its international image from one of religious conservatism, human rights concerns, and oil dependence to one of dynamism, openness, opportunity, and cultural vitality.

This assessment evaluates the effectiveness of Saudi Arabia’s soft power campaign, examines the strategies being deployed, and assesses the implications for Expo 2030 and the Kingdom’s long-term international positioning. The analysis draws on tourism data, media coverage trends, diplomatic developments, and investment flows to provide a data-driven evaluation rather than an ideological one.

The Starting Point

Saudi Arabia’s soft power position in 2016 — when Vision 2030 was launched — was among the weakest of any major economy. International polls consistently showed negative perceptions driven by associations with religious extremism (Saudi-funded mosques and madrasas were widely linked to radical Islamic ideology), gender discrimination (the driving ban for women was globally infamous), human rights abuses (public executions, arbitrary detention, suppression of dissent), and complicity in the September 11 attacks (15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi nationals).

These perceptions created a hostile environment for Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification ambitions. Attracting international tourists, talent, investment, and cultural engagement to a country viewed through this lens was inherently challenging. The Kingdom was effectively absent from soft power indices that ranked nations by cultural influence, diplomatic reach, and international attractiveness.

The baseline metrics tell the story of transformation required. In 2016, Saudi Arabia attracted approximately 27 million total visitors (predominantly religious pilgrims), had zero cinema screens, hosted no major international entertainment or sporting events beyond Formula E, and maintained social restrictions — including the female driving ban and guardianship system — that made the country a byword for gender discrimination in Western media. Transforming this baseline into a country that welcomes 122 million annual visitors, hosts the FIFA World Cup, and wins the right to stage Expo 2030 with 119 of 182 BIE votes represents a soft power trajectory with no modern precedent.

The Soft Power Strategy

Saudi Arabia’s soft power strategy operates across multiple channels simultaneously, creating a saturation effect that ensures the Kingdom is continuously present in global media, cultural conversations, and diplomatic forums:

Sports. The most visible and controversial channel. PIF’s acquisition of Newcastle United Football Club (2021), the creation of LIV Golf (2022), the Saudi Pro League’s recruitment of global football stars including Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, and Neymar (2023-present), the hosting of Formula One, boxing, tennis, golf, and esports events, the Esports World Cup launch in Riyadh (2024), and the pursuit of the 2034 FIFA World Cup collectively represent a multibillion-dollar investment in sports-related soft power.

The sports strategy works through several mechanisms. It creates positive emotional associations (excitement, entertainment, competition) that counteract negative perceptions. It generates massive media exposure in contexts (sports broadcasting, social media highlights) where Saudi Arabia is presented in a favorable light. It builds relationships with influential individuals (athletes, sports administrators, media personalities) who become de facto ambassadors for the Kingdom. And it demonstrates organizational competence — the ability to host world-class events safely and successfully — that builds credibility for other ambitions, including Expo 2030.

The PIF-PGA agreement gave Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund influence over professional golf globally, while the Saudi Pro League’s star acquisitions generated billions of social media impressions. These are not abstract investments — they produce measurable media exposure that reshapes the context in which Saudi Arabia is discussed internationally.

Entertainment and Culture. The Riyadh Season entertainment festival (generating 15+ million visits annually), the MDL Beast music festival, the Red Sea Film Festival, the Diriyah Biennale, and dozens of other cultural events position Saudi Arabia as a creative, fun, and culturally engaged country. Six Flags Qiddiya City — which opened December 31, 2025 with 28 rides including five world records and was named one of TIME Magazine’s World’s Greatest Places 2026 — provides a permanent entertainment anchor that attracts regional and international visitors year-round. The Qiddiya entertainment city targets 17 million annual visitors.

The General Authority for Entertainment, established in May 2016 with over $2 billion in investment, transformed a country with zero public entertainment infrastructure into one hosting hundreds of events annually. The first public live music concert in Riyadh in over 25 years took place in May 2017; by 2026, Saudi Arabia hosts concerts, festivals, and cultural events that are routine rather than revolutionary.

Tourism Marketing. The Saudi Tourism Authority’s marketing campaigns use stunning visual content, influencer partnerships, and targeted digital advertising to present Saudi Arabia as a beautiful, welcoming, and surprising travel destination. The behavioral evidence supports the strategy’s effectiveness: 122 million visitors in 2025, with European arrivals growing 14 percent and East Asia Pacific arrivals growing 15 percent. International visitor spending surged over 20 percent in Q1 2025. People are voting with their wallets to visit Saudi Arabia — the most credible soft power metric available.

Diplomacy and Development. Saudi Arabia has deployed traditional diplomatic soft power through development aid (the Kingdom is one of the world’s largest providers of humanitarian assistance), mediation efforts in regional conflicts (Yemen, Sudan), and multilateral engagement. The Kingdom’s hosting of the G20 summit in 2020, its BRICS membership, and its Expo 2030 bid — winning with 119 votes against Busan’s 29 and Rome’s 17 — are examples of diplomatic soft power through institutional engagement that demonstrates international standing and organizational credibility.

Education and Technology. MISK Foundation’s international partnerships, Saudi Arabia’s investments in AI research (including the Saudi AI Year 2026 initiative), NEOM’s $5 billion DataVolt data center investment, KAUST’s research output, and the Kingdom’s space program create associations with innovation and technological advancement. Women now constitute over 40 percent of STEM students in Saudi universities — a statistic that challenges stereotypes while supporting the Kingdom’s positioning as a technology-forward nation.

Effectiveness Assessment

The effectiveness of Saudi Arabia’s soft power campaign can be evaluated through several lenses, each providing a different facet of the overall picture:

Media Coverage Shift. Analysis of international media coverage shows a significant increase in positive and neutral stories about Saudi Arabia since 2016, driven primarily by sports, entertainment, and tourism content. The ratio of Saudi Arabia coverage across categories has shifted measurably: in 2016, the majority of English-language media stories about the Kingdom related to oil, geopolitics, and human rights. By 2026, sports, entertainment, tourism, and economic development stories constitute a larger share of total coverage, diluting — though not eliminating — the negative narratives.

However, negative coverage related to human rights, geopolitics, and the Khashoggi killing continues to appear prominently. Human Rights Watch, Freedom House, and Amnesty International maintain active monitoring programs that generate critical coverage. Cases like Salma al-Shehab (sentenced to 34 years for social media activity) and Nourah al-Qahtani (sentenced to 45 years) provide specific, emotionally compelling counter-narratives that limit the effectiveness of positive messaging. The investigation reporting over 21,000 worker deaths on Vision 2030 projects between 2017 and 2024 created a particularly damaging news cycle.

Perception Polls. International opinion polls show mixed results. In some markets — particularly in the Global South, among younger demographics, and among sports fans — perceptions of Saudi Arabia have improved measurably. In Western media and human rights-focused communities, perceptions remain negative or have worsened. The divided perception landscape means that Saudi Arabia’s soft power is more effective with some audiences than others — a segmented outcome rather than a universal one.

Tourism Metrics. The growth in international leisure tourism from non-traditional markets provides the strongest behavioral indicator of soft power effectiveness. European arrivals growing 14 percent, East Asian arrivals growing 15 percent, and total visitor spending reaching $81 billion in 2025 demonstrate that millions of people are forming sufficiently positive impressions of Saudi Arabia to choose it as a travel destination. This behavioral validation is more meaningful than attitudinal polling because it involves real commitment of time and money.

Investment Flows. Foreign direct investment into Saudi Arabia reached $21 billion in 2024, though this was down from $26 billion in 2023 and below the $29 billion target. The FDI shortfall suggests that soft power alone is insufficient to overcome structural barriers to foreign investment — regulatory complexity, workforce restrictions, and competitive pressure from UAE and other regional markets. However, the Regional Headquarters Program has successfully attracted multinational companies to establish Saudi presence, and the credit rating upgrades (Moody’s Aa3, S&P A+, Fitch A+ stable) reflect international financial market confidence that supports the soft power narrative.

Sportswashing Criticism. The “sportswashing” critique — the argument that Saudi Arabia uses sports to distract from human rights abuses — has become a persistent counter-narrative that limits the effectiveness of sports-based soft power. The term has entered mainstream media discourse and is routinely cited in coverage of Saudi sports investments, creating automatic negative framing that offsets the positive associations the investments are designed to create. This dynamic means that every sports investment generates not just positive coverage but also critical coverage — a diminishing-returns dynamic that the strategy must account for.

The Expo 2030 Soft Power Moment

Expo 2030 represents the culmination of Saudi Arabia’s soft power strategy — the moment when the Kingdom invites the world to come and see its transformation firsthand. The Expo’s soft power potential is enormous: six months of international attention, 42 million projected visits, 226 pavilions from 197 countries and 29 organizations, thousands of media stories, and billions of social media impressions that collectively shape global perceptions of Saudi Arabia.

The Expo’s theme — “The Era of Change: Together for a Foresighted Tomorrow” — is itself a soft power statement, positioning Saudi Arabia as a nation that has undergone change and is now sharing the fruits of that change with the world. The three sub-themes (Transformational Technology, Sustainable Solutions, Prosperous People) frame the Kingdom’s narrative around universal aspirations rather than national self-promotion.

The campus design by LAVA — with its cellular layout drawn from patterns of galaxies, microorganisms, and traditional Riyadh settlements — creates a physical environment that communicates Saudi Arabia’s blend of tradition and innovation. The 6-square-kilometer site, managed by Bechtel as PMC with Buro Happold as lead design consultant, will be “the most expansive venue in Expo history” according to official statements.

But the Expo also presents soft power risks. The concentrated international attention will illuminate not just the Kingdom’s achievements but also its contradictions. International media covering the Expo will inevitably report on human rights, political governance, labor conditions, and social restrictions alongside stories about pavilions, technology, and entertainment. The experience of Qatar’s 2022 World Cup — where human rights coverage was as prominent as sports coverage — provides a cautionary precedent.

The challenge for Saudi Arabia is not to prevent this coverage (which is impossible) but to ensure that the overall narrative balance favors the transformation story over the criticism story. The most effective Expo soft power strategy would embrace authenticity rather than manufactured perfection. Showing visitors a country that is genuinely changing — imperfectly, incompletely, but irreversibly — is more persuasive than presenting a polished facade that invites skepticism.

Visitors who encounter real Saudis, hear real stories, and experience real culture form impressions that are more durable and defensible than those created by CGI renders and marketing campaigns. Diriyah Gate, with its authentic Najdi architecture and UNESCO heritage site, provides a model for the kind of genuine cultural experience that creates lasting positive impressions — more effective than any amount of paid advertising.

Comparative Context

Saudi Arabia’s soft power campaign can be compared to those of other countries that have attempted similar transformational exercises:

Qatar World Cup 2022. Qatar used the FIFA World Cup to showcase its capabilities and shift perceptions, but faced intense criticism over labor conditions, LGBTQ+ rights, and alcohol restrictions. Post-World Cup assessment suggests that the event generated short-term positive attention but did not fundamentally resolve Qatar’s perception challenges. Saudi Arabia can learn from Qatar’s experience: the critical coverage is inevitable, and preparation for it (through genuine reform progress rather than defensive messaging) is more effective than attempting to suppress it.

China Olympics 2008/2022. China used the Beijing Olympics to project modernization and competence. While the events were operationally successful, they did not prevent deterioration in international perceptions driven by human rights concerns, particularly regarding Xinjiang and Hong Kong. The Chinese comparison suggests that operational excellence alone does not generate sustainable soft power — the underlying substance of the national narrative matters as much as the spectacle.

UAE Brand Building. The UAE has executed a sustained, multi-decade soft power campaign that has transformed Dubai and Abu Dhabi from obscure Gulf territories into globally recognized brands associated with luxury, innovation, and cosmopolitanism. The UAE’s success provides a model for Saudi Arabia but also illustrates the time horizon required — the UAE’s transformation has taken 30+ years to achieve. Dubai Expo 2020 (held in 2021-2022) demonstrated the catalytic potential of a World Expo for nation-branding, attracting over 24 million visits and generating substantial positive media coverage.

South Korea’s K-Wave. South Korea’s cultural exports program — K-pop, Korean cinema, Korean cuisine, Korean technology — is widely considered the most successful soft power campaign in modern history. Government investment of approximately $5-8 billion over 15 years generated cultural influence that transformed South Korea’s international image from war-torn peninsula to global cultural powerhouse. The K-Wave’s success was organic and demand-driven, creating genuine cultural products that audiences chose voluntarily — a qualitative difference from Saudi Arabia’s approach of purchasing existing sports properties and hosting events.

These comparisons suggest that mega-events are powerful soft power tools but are not sufficient by themselves to resolve deep-seated perception challenges. Sustainable soft power requires not just impressive events but genuine social progress, institutional credibility, and the passage of time.

Soft Power Investment Quantification

The total investment in Saudi Arabia’s soft power campaign across all channels represents one of the largest national reputation expenditures in modern history.

This investment scale is unprecedented. By comparison, the United Kingdom’s annual soft power spending (British Council, BBC World Service, cultural diplomacy) totals approximately $2-3 billion. South Korea’s entire K-wave program involved government investment of approximately $5-8 billion over 15 years. Saudi Arabia’s soft power spending in less than a decade exceeds the cumulative soft power investment of most major nations over generations.

The return on this investment cannot be measured in traditional financial terms. Soft power generates returns through reduced diplomatic friction (the BIE vote success — 119 of 182 — illustrates diplomatic soft power’s tangible yield), increased tourism revenue ($81 billion in 2025), improved terms on trade agreements, enhanced ability to attract international talent, and the intangible but real benefit of being viewed as a legitimate and respected member of the international community. These returns accrue over decades and are difficult to attribute to specific expenditures.

The Digital Dimension

Saudi Arabia’s soft power strategy increasingly operates through digital channels that bypass traditional media gatekeepers. Social media content from Saudi entertainment events, sports matches, and tourism experiences generates billions of impressions that reach audiences directly, without the editorial filtering that traditional media applies.

The Six Flags Qiddiya City opening, for example, generated massive social media engagement as visitors shared videos of Falcon’s Flight (world’s tallest, fastest, and longest roller coaster at 640 feet) and other record-breaking rides. This user-generated content provides credible, third-party endorsement of Saudi Arabia as an entertainment destination — more persuasive than paid advertising because it comes from real people sharing genuine experiences.

Expo 2030 will be the first World Expo where metaverse technology is expected to be widely available, enabling remote exploration of themes and subthemes. This digital dimension could extend the Expo’s soft power reach far beyond the 42 million physical visitors, creating virtual experiences that introduce Saudi Arabia to audiences who may never travel to the Kingdom but whose perceptions matter for trade, diplomacy, and cultural exchange.

The Generational Bet

The most important dimension of Saudi Arabia’s soft power strategy may be generational. Young people worldwide — the generation that will shape geopolitical attitudes for the next 40 years — are being exposed to Saudi Arabia through sports, entertainment, social media, and cultural content at rates that far exceed their parents’ exposure. For this generation, Saudi Arabia is associated with Cristiano Ronaldo, Six Flags, MDL Beast, Formula One, and the Esports World Cup — associations that are fundamentally different from those held by older generations, who associate the Kingdom with oil, religious conservatism, and September 11.

If the generational perception shift holds — if young adults who have formed positive or neutral associations with Saudi Arabia maintain those attitudes as they enter positions of influence in politics, media, business, and civil society — the soft power investment will have achieved its most consequential objective: redefining Saudi Arabia’s place in the global imagination for a generation that will lead the world through the mid-21st century.

The MBS reform scorecard documents the tangible changes that support this generational shift: women driving, cinemas open, concerts commonplace, tourist visas available, Six Flags operational, entertainment sector contributing to GDP. These are not cosmetic changes — they represent a genuine transformation of daily life that visitors can experience firsthand. The soft power campaign’s ultimate effectiveness depends on whether these changes are sustained and deepened, or whether the gap between presentation and reality creates the kind of disillusionment that undermines trust.

Long-Term Assessment

Saudi Arabia’s soft power trajectory is ultimately determined by the reality of life within the Kingdom rather than by the sophistication of its marketing. If Saudi Arabia delivers on its promises — creating jobs (unemployment at record lows), empowering women (workforce participation at 36.3 percent), building cultural institutions (Diriyah Gate, Red Sea Film Festival), welcoming visitors (122 million in 2025), and providing its citizens with genuine improvements in quality of life — the soft power will follow naturally, as authentic experiences and positive word-of-mouth supplement institutional marketing.

If, on the other hand, the gap between presentation and reality remains wide — if mega-events coexist with political repression, if entertainment coexists with suppression of dissent, if tourism welcome coexists with journalist intimidation — then the soft power campaign will continue to face the credibility challenge that has limited its effectiveness to date. The $45-63 billion invested since 2016 can generate awareness and create opportunities for positive impression formation, but it cannot manufacture the authenticity that sustainable soft power ultimately requires.

Expo 2030 will not resolve this tension. But it will provide the world with its most comprehensive opportunity to evaluate Saudi Arabia’s transformation and form judgments that will shape the Kingdom’s international reputation for years to come. The stakes of getting it right — not just the spectacle but the substance — are immense. The economy is growing at 4.5 percent. The giga-projects that survive the pragmatic pivot are delivering. The social reforms are irreversible. Whether these substantive achievements generate the soft power returns that justify the unprecedented investment is the question that Expo 2030 will help answer.